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The total reward is divided among all statements that were created during the period after the reward is offered and are established at the payout date.
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Topic:

Reward is a feature that we hope will inspire experts to answer important questions and make their answers available to everyone. It allows a sponsor to signal that they think a question is particularly important by offering a financial prize for established arguments that contribute to the establishment or refutation of the topic. A prize winner can keep the money, apply it to reward other questions, or donate it to charity.

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Topic:

Reward is a feature that we hope will inspire experts to answer important questions and make their answers available to everyone. It allows a sponsor to signal that they think a question is particularly important by offering a financial prize for established arguments that contribute to the establishment or refutation of the topic. A prize winner can keep the money, apply it to reward other questions, or donate it to charity.

Test string

TOPIC HISTORY

Does Jane Doe have cancer given a positive test


Statements

Statement Type Title Description Proposed Probability Author History Last Updated
1/700 of the population has Breast cancer

1/700 of the population has cancer

 1.0 Eric Details 2020-09-11 12:54:06.0
Jane Doe has Breast Cancer

Jane Doe has cancer.

This is an example of a classic Bayesian calculation. it is patterned on ( and the numbers are taken from) the discussion  on pages 104-105 in

Pearl, Judea. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect. Basic Books. Kindle Edition. 

 1.0 Eric Details 2020-09-05 18:10:14.0
TEST Jane Doe has a positive test

 Jane Doe has a positive test

Likelihood of having cancer given a positive test

 1.0 Eric Details 2020-09-02 19:51:49.0

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