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Reward is a feature that we hope will inspire experts to answer important questions and make their answers available to everyone. It allows a sponsor to signal that they think a question is particularly important by offering a financial prize for established arguments that contribute to the establishment or refutation of the topic. A prize winner can keep the money, apply it to reward other questions, or donate it to charity.
TOPIC HISTORY
Statement Type | Title | Description | Proposed Probability | Author | History | Last Updated |
STATEMENT | The New Deal lifted the US out of the Great Depression | The New Deal Lifted the US out of the Great Depression |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
CITATION | The WPA employed more than 8.5 million workers who otherwise would have been out of work | Mary Beth Norton et al. (2009). A People and a Nation: A History of the United States. Since 1865. Cengage. p. 669. ISBN 0547175604. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
CITATION | Unemployment Decreased from 25% to 9% in Roosevelt's first term | Broadus Mitchell, Decade: From New Era through New Deal, 1929–1941 (1964) (wikipedia) |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | War Production Lifted the US out of the Great Depression | An influx of foreign gold helped increase the monetary base | 0.5 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
CITATION | British spending on war goods in gold expanded the monetary base in the US | Hall, Thomas E., and Ferguson, David J. "The Great Depression: An International Disaster of Perverse Economic Policies". Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. 1998. pg 155 (wikipedia) | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Banking Reforms helped stabilize the economy | Glass-Steagall Act FDIC insurance | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
CITATION | Bank failures decreased substantially | "This banking reform offered unprecedented stability: While throughout the 1920s more than five hundred banks failed per year; it was less than ten banks per year after 1933." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Increases in the monetary supply pulled the US out of the Great Depression | Christina Romer argues that suspending the gold standard and allowing the US Dollar to float freely on foreign exchange markets allowed for a 25% increase in industrial production until 1937, and by 50% until 1942. Romer, Christina, "What ended the Great Depression" | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Living Conditions improved for farmers | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 | |
CITATION | Their average income almost doubled by 1937 | Mastering Modern World History by Norman Lowe, second edition, P.117 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | The NRA helped boost industrial production | "By the time the NRA ended in May 1935, industrial production was 55% higher than in May 1933." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Unemployment really dropped from 24.9% to 14.3% at the end of Roosevelt's first term | You cannot count the workers in the WPA and other job creation programs as employed, so the real unemployment rate dropped to 14.3% in 1937 and rose again to 19.0% in 1938. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | The US Reached full employment in December 1941 after entering WW2 | Federal Expenditures accounted for only 3% of GNP in 1929, and war spending consumed 40% of GNP in 1944 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Real wages rose 44% in the first 4 years of the war, and the percentage of families with an annual income of <$2000 fell from 75% to 25% | http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal 119. America in our time: from World War II to Nixon—what happened and why by Godfrey Hodgson |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Cole and Ohanian at UCLA argue that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression by 7 years | Cole and Ohanian use BLS statistics to establish average wages and prices in a variety of industries before the crash. They then adjust these for annual increases in productivity to show that prices and wages lagged behind what they would have been in real terms had the New Deal not taken place. Cole and Ohanian specifically blame the lagging economy on wage and price controls undertaken by the Roosevelt administration. They argue that the fixing of prices contributed substantially to the slow recovery. They cite the lack of anti-trust cases taken to court during the years 1932 to 1938. They claim that the economy didn't reach full employment again until 1943. http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409?RelNum=5409 http://hlcole.bol.ucla.edu/NewDealucla.pdf |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | The Cole and Ohanian model is flawed. | They argue that the time cost of searching for a job in a cartelized industry is the same as that of working full time. That is to say, that no one looks for a better job in an industry in which wages are artificially high while holding down another job. Furthermore, their model counts workers for the WPA and other make-work programs as unemployed. | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | Cole and Ohanian address the effects of job search friction in their appendix | Even without job search friction, their model still shows output falling by 11%. (pg. 11) |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | WPA wages were lower than private sector wages | http://www.socialwelfarehistory.com/organizations/wpa-the-works-progress-administration/ | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
CITATION | The Federal Reserve kept the US in the Great Depression by not increasing the money supply | Milton Friedman argues that if the fed had made more open-market purchases of bonds to keep the money supply constant that the crisis could have been averted. http://fee.org/freeman/detail/the-great-depression-according-to-milton-friedman |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |
STATEMENT | I wasn't actually the author of this Diagram. I imported it from a tester.--Eric | 1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 | |
STATEMENT | Cole and Ohanian at UCLA argue that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression by 7 years | Cole and Ohanian use BLS statistics to establish average wages and prices in a variety of industries before the crash. They then adjust these for annual increases in productivity to show that prices and wages lagged behind what they would have been in real terms had the New Deal not taken place. Cole and Ohanian specifically blame the lagging economy on wage and price controls undertaken by the Roosevelt administration. They argue that the fixing of prices contributed substantially to the slow recovery. They cite the lack of anti-trust cases taken to court during the years 1932 to 1938. They claim that the economy didn't reach full employment again until 1943. http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409?RelNum=5409 http://hlcole.bol.ucla.edu/NewDealucla.pdf ; |
1.0 | Eric | Details | 2018-12-07 06:15:07.0 |